Oscar season is upon us, but that doesn’t mean the only contenders for 2018 will be released in the next few months. While the majority of nominations and winners get spread out among the fall and winter releases (nine of the last ten Best Picture winners have been released in the October-December window), the rest of the months of the year still have a say in what happens on Oscar night. Get Out, released in February last year, nearly stole this year’s show from Three Billboards and The Shape of Water, released in November and December respectively.
So having already posted the contenders being released in October, I thought I’d look back on the previous nine months and highlight the contenders we need to catch up on. There are several Best Picture contenders, and a lot of long shots. I’ll start with the long shots and end with the contenders for the most awards.
Production note: There aren’t odds out for all the craft awards, so I only included likely nominations and long shots for the categories I care about. Some of these movies will compete for things like Best Score or Best Costume Design, but I’m not focusing on those right now.
Long shots (respectively): Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
The Screenplay awards always see a couple of lower-profile movies enter the fray (see: The Big Sick and Molly’s Game from last year). Usually a Best Picture nominee will win, so for these movies, it’s an honor just to be nominated. The Death of Stalin is a comedy about Stalin, which is weird, but it’s directed by Armando Ianucci, who created the Emmy-dominating Veep and was nominated in this category for 2009’s In the Loop. Sorry to Bother You is a kinetic story about a black telemarketer that discovers that using a white voice gets him far, and it’ll probably end up on a lot of critics’ Top Ten lists in a couple of months. Writer-director Boots Riley has a better chance at a nomination than Ianucci, because Sorry was such a breakout indie hit, but neither should make plans to attend the ceremony just yet.
First Reformed (released in May)
Long shots: Actor, Original Screenplay
In a perfect world, First Reformed would be the frontrunner for both of these awards with a shot at Best Picture. It is an original, bold work of art, and Ethan Hawke is astounding in it. But it’s also dark and disturbing, and its ending is hard to wrap your mind around. The Actor field is too crowded with performers from true Best Picture contenders, and the most likely dark horse nominees are older actors that voters will think are due, like Willem Dafoe and Robert Redford (see below). Its most likely chance to sneak in is Original Screenplay, if some of the Best Picture contenders have more support in other areas, like if Green Book proves to be more of an acting showcase than a good script.
The Old Man & the Gun (released in September)
Long shots: Actor, Supporting Actress
Robert Redford has been nominated only once before, for 1973’s The Sting, so it’s fair to say the Academy hasn’t valued his acting chops very highly. That’s a shame, since he’s one of the great movie stars, but The Old Man & the Gun, while supposedly very meta and a tribute to the kinds of movies Redford did in his prime, might be too slight to garner the support he needs for a nomination. Sissy Spacek is an even longer shot, but love and respect for their careers from the Acting branch may push them both over the edge.
Hereditary (released in June)
Long shots: Actress, Original Screenplay
Horror movies rarely ever get Oscar love, but it’s not unheard of. In fact, the Best Actress award went to an actress from a horror movie two years in a row in 1990-91 (Kathy Bates for Misery, Jodie Foster for The Silence of the Lambs), so there would be precedent for Toni Collette to get nominated. She certainly deserves it; she takes horror movie acting to an unusually high level. But that field is crowded. After Get Out‘s Original Screenplay win last year, a nomination for Hereditary in that category is a little more likely.
A Quiet Place (released in April)
Long shots: Picture, Original Screenplay
Again, genre fare is not traditionally recognized well by the Academy. But John Krasinski’s labor of love was a huge hit in the spring, and its story and script are ingeniously structured in a way that could have grabbed voters’ attention. Look for voters to be looking for a way to nominate more popular movies so as to curb the governors’ ill-advised desire for a Best Popular Film category.
Crazy Rich Asians (released in August)
Long shots: Picture, Supporting Actress
Michelle Yeoh is a respected veteran of world cinema (most famous in America for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), and she brings a lot of gravitas to a movie that is largely light. If there’s a surprise nomination in the Supporting Actress category, it will be her. Normally, romantic comedies would not be in play for Best Picture, but the significance of the movie’s all-Asian cast and its surprise hit status make it a player, if an unlikely one.
Eighth Grade (released in July)
Likely nomination: Original Screenplay
Long shot: Picture
People love this movie. Eighth Grade will likely clean up at the Independent Spirit Awards the night before comedian Bo Burnham’s screenplay is honored just to be nominated at the Oscars. If some of the presumed, yet-to-be-released contenders like Adam McKay’s Vice and Steve McQueen’s Widows don’t play as well as expected, this coming-of-age indie could sneak into the Best Picture slate.
The Wife (released in August)
Likely nomination: Actress
The Best Actress field is wide open right now. For a while there, Glenn Close was the frontrunner, but A Star Is Born‘s release has changed the game a bit. Close plays the wife of a writer who is being given the Nobel Prize for Literature, though the couple is harboring a secret.
Reviews laud Close’s performance as a career best, which is saying a lot. For anyone that grew up in the ’90s, you may only know her as Cruella de Vil, which is a shame. She was one of the big movie stars of the ’80s, a decade in which she was nominated for five Acting Oscars. She was perhaps most famous for Fatal Attraction, in which she boils a pet rabbit. The ’80s were crazy.
Right now, Close is almost assured a nomination. Her campaign will play the “she’s due” card, which is hard to argue with. Lady Gaga is a force of nature in A Star Is Born, and Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Olivia Colman in The Favourite are right behind them. The race to win will be hard to call, but Glenn Close will definitely get her seventh nomination in January.
Black Panther (released in February)
Likely nomination: Picture
Long shots: Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography
This may seem like wishful thinking. After all, no Marvel movie has been nominated for Best Picture yet. Indeed, no superhero movie has ever been nominated for the big one, which is a great reminder that the Academy thought The Reader was a better movie than The Dark Knight back in 2008. PSA for the Academy: just because a movie uses the Holocaust as part of its plot doesn’t mean it’s a good movie.
Anyway, barring any unforeseen circumstances, Black Panther will land a Best Picture nomination in January. It has no chance of winning, but it’s almost universally beloved as a blockbuster. Also, its technical achievements go beyond special effects to the level of detail given to the costumes, music, and production design, especially for a superhero movie. The support of all the craft guilds, along with the more diverse Academy voting body, should get it in the race.
Other top awards are less likely, but still possible. Director Ryan Coogler is popular, and he has the reputation of a cinematic pioneer within the industry, turning tentpoles into must-see, prestige events. The cinematography is meticulous and beautiful, and the screenplay is remarkably coherent and meaningful. But the best chance Black Panther has at another top award is for Michael B. Jordan’s performance as the movie’s villain. If Sam Rockwell’s turn as George W. Bush in Vice is more caricature than performance, Jordan will take his place and earn his first nomination.
BlacKkKlansman (released in August)
Likely nominations: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay
Long shots: Actor, Supporting Actor
BlacKkKlansman is the biggest contender that’s already been released this year, which is somewhat surprising. The movie was branded as a comedy, and comedies don’t often get the critical or awards attention they may deserve. And while Spike Lee has the reputation of a directing icon, he’s never been nominated for Best Director. That’s right- they have never nominated the man who directed Do the Right Thing (1989), Malcolm X (1992), and 25th Hour (2002), all of which are legitimate contenders for the best movie of their respective decades.
But that should change this year! BlacKkKlansman was a big hit at the Cannes Film Festival in May, winning the Grand Prix, which is effectively second place to the Palme d’Or. It went on to gross $48 million, which makes it the biggest movie Lee has made since 2006’s Inside Man. Not everyone loved it, but I think BlacKkKlansman is the best fiction film he’s made in 20 years (since the pretty great He Got Game).
The movie has a clear message that’s easy to sell to voters: the Klan was bad in the ’80s, and things aren’t much better now. Lee makes some directorial choices that add to this message at the risk of muddying the narrative, but those choices make the film stronger in the end. I’m excited for this movie to get more attention during awards season, because it deserves it.