Well, this is the 7th time I’ve done this Grammys post, and if there were ever a year the title was prescient and necessary, it’s this year. Most people are going to wake up on Sunday, January 26th, go to Sunday brunch, take an afternoon nap, and then turn on the red carpet coverage without a care in the world. Most people will just blithely look forward to Lizzo or Ariana Grande performing. Most people will be blissfully unaware that the Grammys are in turmoil, bubbling under the surface of the overcrowded tribute songs and Alicia Keys’s game attempts to make the night interesting.
I, unfortunately, am not most people. I have paid attention, and it has been brought to my attention that everything we suspected about the Grammys (that they were corrupt, biased, sexist, and racist) is true. Or at least alleged to be true by the current CEO, Deborah Dugan, who was placed on administrative leave sometime in December and who subsequently filed a formal complaint with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.
In the complaint, Dugan claims the CEO before her, Neil Portnow (who infamously claimed that female artists needed to “step up” when asked about poor representation on radio and in the industry) had a rape claim made against him before he left after his contract was up last July. She also claimed that an attorney retained by the Recording Academy (which oversees the Grammy Awards), Joel Katz, had sexually harassed her. On top of those two statements, Dugan also alleged corruption in the Grammy nomination process, as well as on the organization’s executive board itself.
You can find an explainer for all of that here. It appears as if the Recording Academy is continuing to resist change, furthering and solidifying the concept that the Grammys will forever be stuck in a different era with nary a forward-thinking bone in their leadership. In the past, this manifested as weird nomination choices and weirder winner choices. Now, it appears that something far more sinister is going on.
In the meantime, I’ll do what I usually do and try to fix the nominations, predict the winners, and change the genres around. I did significantly less genres this year. One reason for this was that I found I was often drawing genre lines based on race, which is why I no longer have an R&B or Soul category. Those albums were often more suited to pop or Americana anyway, and I tended to associate black acts with those categories. I don’t want to do that anymore.
I also got rid of the Christian category. The albums I was forcing into that category can compete against secular albums just fine. My feelings have grown more mixed about the idea of an entire industry built around Christian music anyway, so I’m ready to move past that concept. I’m sure the entire Christian music industrial complex will follow my example and liquidate its assets to give to the poor.
A few ground rules:
1) I’ll give the real nominees with my prediction for the winner in bold. Then I’ll give you who I would have nominated, with my choice for the best in that group in bold.
2) We all know the October 1st, 2018-September 30th, 2019 qualifying dates are stupid, but we’re going to keep them in the interest of chaos. I can’t fix everything about the Grammys. So JESUS IS KING is out, but The 1975’s A Brief Inquiry into Online Relationships (from 2018, but released in November) is fair game.
3) For the four major awards (Album, Record, Song, New Artist), I’m realistic. The Tallest Man on Earth and Our Native Daughters made two of my favorite albums in the qualifying year, but they’re too niche to be nominated for Album of the Year. However, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift also released albums I loved, and they’re plausible options for the big one. But when it comes to the genre awards, anything goes- hence, artists like Over the Rhine, Jamila Woods, and Charly Bliss getting nods over more popular acts in their respective categories.
4) Even with less genres, genre boundaries are still fuzzy- Chance’s and Jamila’s albums could really fit into pop or hip-hop, PUP and Kings Kaleidoscope could easily be considered alternative instead of rock, The Lion King: The Gift has equal elements of hip-hop and pop, etc. So I went with my gut. I don’t have your gut, so if you disagree with me on whether or not Josh Garrels belongs in the alternative or Americana category, sorry.
I’ll start with the main awards.
Album of the Year
Real nominees: Ariana Grande, thank u, next
Billie Eilish, WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO?
Bon Iver, i, i
H.E.R., I Used to Know Her
Lana Del Rey, Norman F***ing Rockwell!
Lil Nas X, 7 EP
Lizzo, Cuz I Love You (Deluxe)
Vampire Weekend, Father of the Bride
My nominees: The 1975, A Brief Inquiry into Online Relationships
Ariana Grande, thank u, next
Beyoncé, The Lion King: The Gift
Bon Iver, i, i
Lana Del Rey, Norman F***ing Rockwell!
Pistol Annies, Interstate Gospel
Robyn, Honey
Taylor Swift, Lover
I came late to Billie Eilish, only listening to WHEN WE FALL within the last week. I’ve loved it so far, but it’s a little late for me to have added it to my nominees, so I’m going to stick with what I have. That won’t stop her at the actual ceremony, however. She’s in for a possible sweep of the Big Four, which hasn’t happened since 1981 when Christopher Cross beat Pink Floyd’s The Wall for Album, Frank Sinatra’s “New York, New York” for Record, Irene Cara’s “Fame” for Song, and The Pretenders for New Artist. (Yikes.) She’s currently favored for all but Record, in which Lil Nas X has the edge.
The thing is that Lizzo actually has the most nominations of any artist and could easily procure a sweep of her own. The argument for Lizzo is that she draws so much from established genre tropes, while Eilish’s music is a little unsettling if not entirely unconventional. Eilish has been the favorite for about a year now, which could mean she’s too entrenched to be unseated or that voters are tired of her. My guess is that Eilish will ride the wave of support from her New Artist wins at both the American Music Awards and MTV Video Music Awards to at least three of the four awards. I’m betting on four of four though.
I loved seeing Lana Del Rey get a nod here and in Song, her first Big Four nominations. That album is my favorite of the year, and it’s hard to see it getting upended before the Bummys in August. Ariana is also a welcome sight, and it will be nice to see her perform after last year’s kerfuffle with the show’s producer, Ken Ehrlich, who will step down after this year’s show. Swift was fully expected to be among the nominees, given she’s been a perennial favorite of the Academy’s, but I suppose that was before she started stepping on the toes of powerful people. Lover was a more complete album than reputation and deserved to earn her a nomination.
I like Lizzo, but her two albums before Cuz I Love You were better. Cuz I Love You leans a little too hard into her self-mythology, amping up the polish and sacrificing some of the rawness of her independent-label output. I’d rather see Robyn (who has only been nominated in Dance category) get some Big Four love for Honey, which is an all-time great sad-pop record. I could also do without H.E.R., who continues to be a very solid artist getting way more attention than expected from the Academy, and Lil Nas X, who had a stellar year with a couple of massive hits on a so-so EP.
I’m a little puzzled by the lack of love for The Lion King: The Gift, which I thought was a marvel of a showcase for African artists. I’m similarly puzzled by the love for Bon Iver’s i, i, not because it’s bad, but because frontman Justin Vernon vocally hates the Grammys, and it’s hard to believe the Academy would respond to an obtuse album like this, as great as it is. I’d definitely pick it for my nominees though. I’d knock Vampire Weekend off and throw some love to The 1975, who made my favorite record of 2018 with their breakout A Brief Inquiry into Online Relationships. This era is dominated by pop, so I’m not surprised they haven’t broken through into the Big Four, since they’re generally pegged as rock, though they’re more genre-fluid than that.
And finally, I’d highlight one Americana record from the Miranda Lambert-led supergroup Pistol Annies. Twenty years from now, when the men who currently run the Recording Academy are giving interviews at the end of their careers, interviewers will ask them about the Grammys’ and music industry’s record with female artists. They will point to Album wins for Taylor Swift, Adele, and Kacey Musgraves. And those of us without too much earwax in our ears will say the name, “Miranda Lambert,” who has only ever been nominated for Grammys in the Country genre. Then we’ll drop the mic right on their toes, still sore from Swift stepping on them, and walk out of the room, confident in our good taste.
Record of the Year
Real nominees: Ariana Grande, “7 Rings”
Billie Eilish, “bad guy”
Bon Iver, “Hey, Ma”
H.E.R., “Hard Place”
Khalid, “Talk”
Lil Nas X, “Old Town Road [Remix] (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus)”
Lizzo, “Truth Hurts”
Post Malone & Swae Lee, “Sunflower”
My nominees: Ariana Grande, “thank u, next”
Beyoncé, “BROWN SKIN GIRL (feat. SAINt JHN, Wizkid & Blue Ivy Carter)”
Billie Eilish, “bad guy”
Bon Iver, “Hey, Ma”
Katy Perry, “Never Really Over”
Lil Nas X, “Old Town Road [Remix] (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus)”
Post Malone & Swae Lee, “Sunflower”
Taylor Swift, “Lover”
The distinction between Record and Song of the Year is unclear to most people who watch the Grammys, but Record is for the performance and the production, while Song is for the songwriting. I struggle every year with good songs to determine where the line is supposed to be between those aspects. But now that we have some evidence that the committees involved in the nomination process are rigging it anyway, I’ve decided I don’t care and will just try to include as many songs as I can between the two categories, with only the truly great songs garnering nods in both.
The odds currently favor Lil Nas X in this category. “Old Town Road” was such a massive and unexpected hit that I’d have no problem with that. But I think Billie Eilish is going to sweep the Big Four, and it’s hard to argue that the performance and the production of “bad guy” are less deserving than the songwriting. Lizzo also stands a chance. Everyone else is just happy to be here.
It’s fun to see “Sunflower” and “Hey, Ma” here, two songs that I loved that I would not have expected the Academy to recognize. I like “Talk” and “Hard Place,” but not enough to place them in the top 8 records of the year. Instead, I’d rather include the best song from the Lion King compilation and the title song off of Swift’s album, both of which are marvelous examples of how their respective artists have grown.
I didn’t include “Truth Hurts,” because it came out 3 years ago at this point. The Grammys have some way of nominating songs like this that reach a certain level of popularity a certain amount of time after they were released, and like everything else, this process lacks transparency. In my Grammys, “Truth Hurts” is a great song, but not eligible for this award. Instead let’s give Katy Perry a slot for the best song she’s ever written. “Never Really Over” is somehow underrated after Perry being overrated for most of her career.
As far as who I would pick to win this category, I’d go with Ariana Grande, though not for the song they nominated. “7 rings” is cheeky and fun, but the standout Ariana single from the qualifying period is clearly “thank u, next.” Ken Ehrlich wouldn’t let Ariana perform “thank u, next” at last year’s ceremony, which prompted her to drop out of performing at all. I’m not saying this is why the Academy chose “7 rings” over “thank u, next,” but I am saying that the Academy sucks.
Song of the Year
Real nominees: Billie Eilish, “Bad Guy”
H.E.R., “Hard Place”
Lady Gaga, “Always Remember Us This Way”
Lana Del Rey, “Norman f***ing Rockwell”
Lewis Capaldi, “Someone You Loved”
Lizzo, “Truth Hurts”
Tanya Tucker, “Bring My Flowers Now”
Taylor Swift, “Lover”
My nominees: Ariana Grande, “thank u, next”
Beyoncé, “BROWN SKIN GIRL (feat. SAINt JHN, Wizkid & Blue Ivy Carter)”
Big Thief, “Not”
Brittany Howard, “Stay High”
Katy Perry, “Never Really Over”
Lana Del Rey, “hope is a dangerous thing for a woman like me to have – but I have it”
Taylor Swift, “Lover”
Vampire Weekend, “Harmony Hall”
As long as we’re distinguishing between songwriting and performing/producing, I’ll say that there are better-written songs on WHEN WE FALL than “bad guy,” but the song is such a juggernaut that it doesn’t matter. Billie Eilish is all but assured to win this. Again, Lizzo may sneak ahead of her, which we can chalk up to the Academy voters being more comfortable with a song that has a traditional structure. I could also see the Academy giving this award to Tanya Tucker, totally rejecting youth culture as a big middle finger to anyone pushing for a more forward-thinking awards ceremony.
It’s a little surprising that this is the only major award A Star Is Born was nominated for. An Album of the Year nomination was fully expected, and this nomination feels like settling for that soundtrack, especially since this song is far from the first, second, or third song you remember from that movie. Also surprising is that this is Swift’s only Big Four nomination this year, but I guess that’s what she gets for standing up to one of the most powerful men in music.
The holdovers from Record among my nominations are Ariana, Beyoncé, Perry, and Swift. I’m confused by the lack of love for the Lion King compilation in general, but especially for “BROWN SKIN GIRL,” which was something of an Internet phenomenon upon its release. I can’t think of a single reason a song like this wouldn’t be nominated by the Recording Academy. Nope. Not one.
I also included songs from Big Thief and Vampire Weekend that dominated my playlists this year. The Big Thief song is a little bit of a stretch, but the Grammys nominated the Brooklyn band for Best Alternative Album, so they’re at least on the radar. Alabama Shakes has been nominated for Album of the Year in the past, so it’s not crazy to imagine Brittany Howard getting nominated for the best song from her bold solo album. And I’d sub Lana’s title song out for “hope,” which is still breathtaking for me even after my hundredth or so listen.
Best New Artist
Real nominees: Billie Eilish
Black Pumas
Lil Nas X
Lizzo
Maggie Rogers
ROSALÍA
Tank and the Bangas
Yola
My nominees: Better Oblivion Community Center
Billie Eilish
The Highwomen
Lil Nas X
Our Native Daughters
ROSALÍA
Best New Artist is known for being a terrible category, but the Grammys track record of anointing a hot artist as one to watch is a little better than you might think. Running through the category’s history turns up a lot of one-hit wonders, but also a lot of artists that have had staying power. This award is Billie Eilish’s to lose, though Lizzo is right there on her heels. Again, this is hard to predict, but they both seem to me like artists with more to say who can last.
It’s fun seeing ROSALÍA represented here, as I had thought she was more niche than she is; she’s actually blown up in a really cool way over the last year. Lil Nas X is deserving based on the strength of “Old Town Road” and “Panini” alone, even if he has yet to show he has any other cards up his sleeve. If I had listened to their albums earlier, I may have included both Maggie Rogers and Tank and the Bangas on my list. Black Pumas and Yola, on the other hand, didn’t stand out to be enough to make it into my top tier.
I cheated a little bit with my nominations, including three low-key supergroups that have artists that are definitely already established. Better Oblivion Community Center is a collaboration between Phoebe Bridgers and Conor Oberst (of Bright Eyes fame). The Highwomen are Brandi Carlile, Natalie Hemby, Maren Morris, and Amanda Shires. And Our Native Daughters are Rhiannon Giddens, Amythyst Kiah, Leyla McCalla, and Allison Russell. All of these groups released their debut albums during the qualifying period, so I’m going with it. The work that Our Native Daughters did on their debut was particularly astounding, so they’d get my top pick.
Best Alternative Music Album
Real nominees: Big Thief, U.F.O.F.
Bon Iver, i, i
James Blake, Assume Form
Thom Yorke, ANIMA
Vampire Weekend, Father of the Bride
My nominees: boygenius, boygenius EP
Bon Iver, i, i
Sharon Van Etten, Remind Me Tomorrow
The Tallest Man on Earth, I Love You. It’s a Fever Dream.
Vampire Weekend, Father of the Bride
I’ve got no problem with the nominees for this category. Bon Iver and Vampire Weekend have clearly reached upperclassmen status to have been included in the Big Four nominations, so it makes sense they would be nominated here too. Thom Yorke is Thom Yorke, and at this point, James Blake is James Blake, though it’s a little weird that he’s here instead of Dance/Electronic. I liked Two Hands, Big Thief’s second album released in 2019, more than U.F.O.F., but it’s fun that an up-and-coming indie band got recognized.
Bon Iver and Vampire Weekend get to stay in my nominees, as both albums are both extremely listenable and endlessly interesting snapshots of both artists’ musical progression. Sharon Van Etten’s fifth album gets one of my slots; after her breakout fourth album, Are We There, Van Etten leans away from confessional songwriting and toward something more obtuse, but no less beautiful. boygenius deserves a nod for their debut EP as a supergroup (Julien Baker, Phoebe Bridgers, Lucy Dacus) after I gave them Best New Artist last year. And my winner would be The Tallest Man on Earth, who keeps finding new ways to make his brand of Swedish folk into ever-expanding musicscapes.
Best Americana Album
Real nominees (Country Album): Eric Church, Desperate Man
Pistol Annies, Interstate Gospel
Reba McEntire, Stronger Than the Truth
Tanya Tucker, While I’m Livin’
Thomas Rhett, Center Point Road
My nominees: Joan Shelley, Like the River Loves the Sea
Josh Garrels, Chrysaline
Our Native Daughters, Songs of Our Native Daughters
Over the Rhine, Love & Revelation
Pistol Annies, Interstate Gospel
Tanya Tucker clearly has the support with the Song of the Year nomination, perhaps because it was co-produced by Brandi Carlile, who emerged as a Grammy favorite last year with 6 nominations. It’s also a nice comeback story for Tucker after a 50-year career that started during her outlaw country years in the 1970s. Rhett is an up-and-comer, while Reba and Church are Grammy mainstays at this point. This is Pistol Annies’ first nomination and Miranda Lambert’s 16th. She’s only got 2 wins to her name, so I’d love for this to be the 3rd, as unlikely as it is.
These categories get confusing, because the Grammys have several Roots categories as well as an Americana category and a Bluegrass category. It shouldn’t get that confusing though, because none of my nominees were nominated in any of those other categories. Joan Shelley, a Kentucky-based musician, has become one of my favorite roots musicians with her spare instrumentation and spellbinding voice. Over the Rhine, based out of Cincinnati, have been at this for some time, mastering the folk genre and bending their style into other genres as well. Josh Garrels, from South Bend, has produced some of the more beautiful folk music centered around Christian themes this decade, and his most recent album is designed to function as a musical liturgy. But the best Americana album of the year was by far Songs of Our Native Daughters (seen above winning Best New Artist in my world), which paints a clear picture of our American history that was built on the back of violence and callous disregard for the value of human life.
Best Hip-Hop Album
Real nominees (Rap Album): 21 Savage, i am > i was
Dreamville & J. Cole, Revenge of the Dreamers III
Meek Mill, Championships
Tyler, the Creator, Igor
YBN Cordae, The Lost Boy
My nominees: Beyoncé, The Lion King: The Gift
Chance the Rapper, The Big Day
Jamila Woods, LEGACY! LEGACY!
Young Thug, So Much Fun
This year both hip-hop and rock suffered in my listening habits. I was only able to cobble together four nominees for both of those genres. If you look at the nominees, it’s not hard to see why. There’s only one artist here that has established himself as a major artist, and that’s Tyler, the Creator. This is his second nomination for Rap Album, and while all of these albums were well-received, Tyler’s was the only one that lingered in the culture through the end of the year.
However, Tyler isn’t my bag. I’ve given each of his albums a try, and he hasn’t clicked for me. Young Thug has definitely clicked for me on almost all of his albums, especially this most recent, which isn’t his best but might be his most polished with the most accessible hooks. Jamila Woods is probably best known for her featured singing on a couple of Chance-related songs (“Sunday Candy,” “Blessings”), but her second album, a step up in ambition from her first, leans enough into hip-hop traditions for it to qualify here. Speaking of Chance, The Big Day wasn’t particularly well-received, but it’s growing on me enough to convince me that it’s actually good and deserves recognition. But the best hip-hop album of the year was Beyoncé’s Lion King compilation, which followed in the footsteps of Kendrick’s curation of the Black Panther album by showcasing some of hip-hop’s underheard talent. The Academy nominated this in the Pop Vocal category, but one listen makes it clear this is a hip-hop album through and through.
Best Pop Album
Real nominees (Pop Vocal Album): Ariana Grande, thank u, next
Beyoncé, The Lion King: The Gift
Billie Eilish, When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?
Ed Sheeran, No.6 Collaborations Project
Taylor Swift, Lover
My nominees: Ariana Grande, thank u, next
Lana Del Rey, Norman F***ing Rockwell!
Nao, Saturn
Robyn, Honey
Taylor Swift, Lover
As I said above, Billie Eilish would likely have made these lists if I had listened to her earlier in the year. As such, she’ll have to comfort herself with winning actual Grammys. No surprise to see Ariana and Taylor present here, and Beyoncé’s compilation fits in this category fine. Sheeran has been getting nominated for Grammys since his first single, “The A Team,” was nominated for Song of the Year in 2013, but it’s a little surprising he didn’t slip into the Big Four this year.
My nominees include Nao, who is nominated this year in the Urban Contemporary Album category and who has never made a bad song, and Robyn, whose comeback album was completely ignored and who was hugely influential on all the biggest pop stars of the 2010s. The winner would be the artist that would win Album of the Year, Lana Del Rey, because it’s only logical for her to be nominated and most likely win in her genre if the album’s received an Album of the Year nomination. What’s that? You mean the Grammys nominated Norman F***ing Rockwell for Album of the Year and not in her genre? You mean the Grammys are stupid and don’t make any sense? Someone should fix these things!
Best Rock Album
Real nominees: Bring Me the Horizon, amo
Cage the Elephant, Social Cues
The Cranberries, In the End
I Prevail, Trauma
Rival Sons, Feral Roots
My nominees: The 1975, A Brief Inquiry into Online Relationships
Charly Bliss, Young Enough
Kings Kaleidoscope, Zeal
PUP, Morbid Stuff
Remember how I detailed the Rap Album nominees to demonstrate how this was a down year for hip-hop? Well, I’m not even sure I should point you to the real nominees for Rock Album, lest I give you whiplash or lockjaw. I know who Cage the Elephant is and The Cranberries, and that’s the extent of my understanding of this category. I originally thought “amo” was the name of the band and “Bring Me the Horizon” was the name of the album, by the way. I mean, good for these bands. Far be it from me to begrudge less-popular acts from getting their moment in the son.
The issue is with the Academy’s process itself, which seems to ignore vast swaths of rock music in favor of groups associated with certain members of the genre’s elite. I’m not here to cast aspersions on these bands, but there are really cool things happening on the edges of rock scenes around the world. Charly Bliss and PUP are rising stars in Brooklyn and Toronto, respectively, and both their newest albums honor the genre’s past while pushing forward our ideas of what rock can be. I’m not surprised Kings Kaleidoscope wasn’t nominated; even in the Seattle-based band’s Christian music industry circles, they’re almost like black sheep for including a curse word on their 2016 album, Beyond Control. Zeal is their most ambitious album yet, rewarding for its exploration of what faith looks like in the real world.
But the most obvious snub of all is The 1975, which became a legitimate phenomenon with A Brief Inquiry. They play around the edges of pop, sure, but their entire ethos is about as rock and roll as you can get. The Grammys know who they are; they nominated “Give Yourself a Try” in the Rock Song category this year, so that means they recognize them as rock music as well. If I needed one category to sum up how disparate and discombobulated the Grammys’ nomination process is, they gave me a layup with this one.
Coulda Been a Contender 