Look, I know that Oscar season is exhausting. To counteract that, I’ve made an exhaustive list of all the Oscar-hopeful movies that will be a part of the conversation this year, so that you know what to prioritize if you care even an iota about the Academy Awards. They’re ordered from “most likely to be relevant” to “probably not relevant at all but maybe they’ve got a distant chance of being relevant.” I’m taking all the categories into account, not just Best Picture, so there’s a couple of movies near the top of this list that probably won’t make the cut in that category but will have such a high number of other nominations that their relevance is higher than, say, Green Book, which probably can’t expect many nominations beyond the highest profile ones.
I’ve already written about the movies on this list that came out in October, November, and December, so I may not have much new to say about those movies. Enjoy!
A Star Is Born (in theaters now)
Likely nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Song, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Long shots: Best Costume Design, Best Production Design
After a high-profile no-show at the Golden Globes, getting bested by Bohemian Rhapsody for Best Actor and Drama, by The Wife for Best Actress, and by Roma for Best Director, it may be tempting to write off Star‘s chances at Oscars. But don’t fall into that trap: A Star Is Born is still the favorite. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has no overlapping membership with the Academy, but all the Guilds (Writers, Directors, Producers, Screen Actors, etc.) do, and they’re recognizing A Star Is Born across the board. It’s a shoo-in for a lot of nominations. Now whether it wins a lot is another story…
The Favourite (In theaters now)
Likely nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress (2), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design
The Favourite is the second, uh, favorite right now.
Black Panther (Streaming on Netflix)
Likely nominations: Best Picture, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Production Design, Best Score, Best Song, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Visual Effects
Long shots: Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing
Black Panther has strong support across the board, especially from the craft guilds. A SAG nomination for the whole cast was especially helpful. It stands a great chance at having the highest number of nominations when all is said and done, and it will be the favorite to win none of them, unfortunately. But it will likely be the first superhero movie nominated for Best Picture. Richard Donner’s Superman and Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight will pop some champagne in celebration.
Also, expect outrage from critics and fans alike if this doesn’t get nominated for Best Picture. I’ll be mad too, and a little surprised. The effort the Academy took to expand its membership also diversified its ranks as well, which means that a movie as significant as Black Panther for cinematic diversity that is also as good as Black Panther should get nominated. Even people who don’t like superhero movies liked Black Panther. Come on, Academy.
First Man (In limited theaters now)
Likely nominations: Best Supporting Actress, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Score, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Visual Effects
Long shots: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay
First Man has largely fallen out of the race due to poor box office and middling reviews, but director Damien Chazelle’s Neil Armstrong biopic is so well-crafted, it will pick up nominations for some of the smaller awards. Claire Foy had herself a year outside First Man which has created good will for her that should result in recognition for her understated performance as Armstrong’s wife.
Roma (Streaming on Netflix)
Likely nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Foreign-Language Film, Best Film Editing, Best Sound Editing
Long shots: Best Actress, Best Production Design, Best Sound Mixing
There were points during the lead-up to Oscar season at which critics declared Roma the frontrunner for Best Picture. That always seemed a tough sell to me; a black-and-white, Spanish-language film winning Best Picture for 2018? Unlikely. But this movie creates ardent supporters, so it might win everything else it’s nominated for, and it’s almost certain to win Best Foreign-Language Film.
Mary Poppins Returns (In theaters now)
Likely nominations: Best Actress, Best Costume Design, Best Production Design, Best Score, Best Song, Best Sound Mixing, Best Visual Effects
Long shot: Best Picture
Much like First Man, initial Best Picture buzz has wavered after mixed reviews. But Emily Blunt seems like a lock, and it will get recognized in the craft awards as well. Director Rob Marshall (Chicago, Memoirs of a Geisha) always does well with his production design across the board.
Vice (In theaters now)
Likely nominations: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Long shots: Best Director, Best Supporting Actor
This is a polarizing movie, even more so than The Big Short. Enough people will love it that it will get nominated, but enough people will hate it that it won’t win much. Except, of course, Christian Bale, who seems destined to win Best Actor. Amy Adams also seems like a lock to get nominated, though unlikely to win, adding to her always-a-bridesmaid status; she’ll have 6 nominations without a win, getting close to the record for actors (8: Peter O’Toole). Adam McKay just picked up a Directors Guild nomination, so he may not be a long shot anymore. However, people don’t seem enamored with Sam Rockwell’s Dubya impression, so he’s probably out.
If Beale Street Could Talk (In theaters now)
Likely nominations: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Score
Long shot: Best Director
Some Oscar prognosticators seem to be leaving this out of the Best Picture conversation, but I think they’re underestimating the respect for Barry Jenkins throughout the Academy’s newest members. Last summer, the Academy extended an invitation to 928 new members in an effort to boost its diversity numbers. Those members barely raised the percentage of women or minorities in the Academy’s full roster, but these newest members are active in the industry right now, and much more likely to feel like there is a lot at stake in their right to vote for the Oscars. If Beale Street Could Talk is a beautiful movie from a director that has already leaped into the upper echelon. Those new members are not going to ignore this movie.
BlacKkKlansman (Available to rent or buy)
Likely nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay
Long shots: Best Actor, Best Film Editing, Best Score
I have a sneaking suspicion that BlacKkKlansman, after getting nominated, is going to rise up this list. In a wide open year with a shaky frontrunner (A Star Is Born, for various reasons, seems likely to wear on voters rather than grow on them), BlacKkKlansman ticks a lot of boxes. For one thing, director Spike Lee has historically been snubbed by the Oscars. For another, BlacKkKlansman was a relatively big hit this summer as counterprogramming. Also, the fact that it was made by black people, stars black people, and is about issues important to black people will appeal to Academy voters who want to shed the #OscarsSoWhite label once and for all (even though this, like Moonlight‘s win, would ultimately only move the needle a tiny bit, but that’s a different blog post). I’m not saying it’s going to win, but the conversation will heat up after the nominations are announced.
Also, prepare yourself for awkward conversations about how the star of the movie, John David Washington, who is great, did not get nominated, but his white co-star, Adam Driver, did. Driver is good in the movie, but it’s clearly Washington’s film. However, the Best Actor field is too crowded, and the Best Supporting Actor field is not. That won’t matter; people are still going to give the Academy the side-eye.
Green Book (In theaters now)
Likely nominations: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay
Long shots: Best Director, Best Film Editing
Hoo boy, lots of controversy around this one right now. It all started with star (and likely nominee) Viggo Mortensen using the N-word while explaining the impact of the movie (the context for his usage of the word is important, but also highlights his lack of self-awareness). Then the family members of the movie’s subject, Dr. Don Shirley, excoriated the movie for what they portrayed as lies about Dr. Shirley’s relationship with his family and with Mortensen’s character, Tony “Lip” Vallelonga. Some racist tweets from the co-writer of the film and Vallelonga’s son, Nick Vallelonga, were unearthed earlier this week, as were previous instances of public exposure from the film’s director, Peter Farrelly. And none of this includes the criticism’s of the film’s apparently simple handling of racism from the world of film critics.
Look, I haven’t seen Green Book, and enough people I respect, both film critics and not, have liked it that I’m doing my best not to judge it before I see it. For now, all I can do is judge the conversation around it, and the truth of the matter is, they could have won Best Picture and have mishandled this at every turn.
Mahershala Ali, who plays Dr. Shirley in the movie, is well on his way to winning Best Supporting Actor, and he’s acquitted himself well, apologizing directly to the family and focusing solely on celebrating Dr. Shirley’s life in his acceptance speeches. But a movie that won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF should have been positioned as a frontrunner.
Some publications are still trying, but no frontrunner has had this kind of controversy in…well, ever, at least in recent memory. The Oscar nominations in general have generated controversy, and movies have had minor grievances brought against them for claims of stealing ideas or lack of historicity, but those were relatively small compared to the controversies surrounding Green Book.
There’s still time. If they get through the next month and a half controversy-free and if the old guard finds it too appealing to pass up, it could still win. But for now, it looks like it’s just going to settle for nominations and will probably go home empty-handed- except for Ali.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (In limited theaters now)
Likely nominations: Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay
Long shot: Best Picture
I think Oscar oddsmakers were expecting a little more support from critics’ groups and the box office, given Melissa McCarthy’s stardom. But this indie hasn’t gotten as much traction in either realm, so it’ll settle for some secondary nominations, with not much chance to win any of them.
First Reformed (Available to rent or buy)
Likely nominations: Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay
This is the one movie I would be overjoyed for if it gets nominated and wins either of these awards. I may love Christian Bale’s performance in Vice when I see it, but I’m having a hard time believing that Bale deserves Best Actor over Hawke in this movie, who is at his career best. This is the boldest movie of the year, and I’m hopeful the odds are right and it picks up these prominent nominations.
RBG (Streaming on Hulu)
Likely nominations: Best Documentary, Best Song
RBG looks likely to be the only Documentary nominee nominated for something else; in this case, it’s “I’ll Fight” by Jennifer Hudson.
Isle of Dogs (Streaming on HBO)
Likely nominations: Best Animated Feature, Best Score
Wes Anderson’s latest animated movie isn’t his most beloved, but it’s a visual and aural feast, so it’ll be in the Animated Feature slate for sure. Alexandre Desplat will get recognized as well.
A Quiet Place (Available to rent or buy)
Likely nominations: Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Long shots: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Score
I’d love for Jim Halpert- sorry, John Krasinski’s debut film to get nominated in all the above categories. Emily Blunt, in particular, would be a wonderful choice for the Academy. But its highest chances are in its most prominent feature: sound, of course.
Mary Queen of Scots (In theaters now)
Likely nominations: Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Long shot: Best Supporting Actress, Best Production Design
Before it premiered, Mary Queen of Scots appeared likely to land nominations for both Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie, but after debuting as a more middle-of-the-road period piece, just craft awards will have to do.
Bohemian Rhapsody (In limited theaters now)
Likely nomination: Best Actor
Long shots: Best Picture, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Look, I get that it won the Golden Globe, but the Golden Globes and the Academy have no overlap in their voting bodies. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which runs the Globes, supposedly has around 90 members, all journalists from other countries. Somehow, their awards became a thing, but that thing is not predictive of Oscar wins. However, they can influence the Oscars by bringing attention to movies that would not otherwise receive it.
So yes, it’s possible that Bohemian Rhapsody will get a Best Picture nomination. It’s more possible today than it was before the Globes last week. But it’s still improbable.
But Rami Malek is a lock.
The Wife (In limited theaters now)
Likely nomination: Best Actress
If there was a sure thing at the Globes last week, it was that Lady Gaga would win Best Actress in a Drama. It seemed as if the HFPA, with its obsession with celebrity, wouldn’t be able to resist putting Gaga up onstage. But they went with Glenn Close instead. All that means now is that Academy voters are even more apt to see the movie and nominate her performance. When she’s nominated, it’ll be her seventh nomination. She’s never won.
Beautiful Boy (Streaming on Amazon Prime)
Likely nomination: Best Supporting Actor
Long shot: Best Adapted Screenplay
Beautiful Boy had higher aspirations, but Timothée Chalamet will be its only nominee. Of course, he has a leading role- just another example of category jiggling to ensure a nomination.
Eighth Grade (Available to rent or buy)
Likely nomination: Best Original Screenplay
Support from the critics groups, Directors Guild (Best Film First-Time Directing), and Writers Guild should bring this wonderful movie a nomination for its screenplay.
Incredibles 2 (Available to rent or buy)
Likely nomination: Best Animated Feature
Long shot: Best Sound Editing
The current Animated Feature favorite, though it’s definitely not my favorite. It’s good, but it doesn’t live up to the original.
Cold War (In theaters now)
Likely nomination: Best Foreign-Language Film
Long shot: Best Cinematography
Polish director Pawel Pawlikowski directed one of my favorite movies of 2014, that year’s Best Foreign-Language Film winner, Ida. He’ll get his second Oscar nomination for this critically beloved romance.
Burning (In limited theaters now)
Likely nomination: Best Foreign-Language Film
This South Korean submission has gotten a lot of attention for the supporting performance of Walking Dead alum Steven Yeun, though he stands no chance at a nomination. The movie should get in.
Capernaum (In limited theaters now)
Likely nomination: Best Foreign-Language Film
Lebanon had its first movie nominated in this category ever last year (The Insult), and it’s well on its way to its second with this drama that made a splash at Cannes.
Free Solo (In limited theaters now)
Likely nomination: Best Documentary
I wish I had gotten to see this in theaters. By all accounts, it’s a breath-taking account of one man’s attempt to scale the El Capitan Wall in Yosemite.
Minding the Gap (Streaming on Hulu)
Likely nomination: Best Documentary
Critics have raved about this film about a skateboarding community in Rockford, Illinois. The trailer looked a little like a show you might find on an obscure cable channel that only programs reality shows. But director Bing Liu has been feted all over the place in celebration of the movie, so maybe there’s more to it.
Mirai (Unavailable)
Likely nomination: Best Animated Feature
Critically acclaimed, but it doesn’t have a ton of buzz. A lot of times, one anime film will get pushed to the top of the crop for marketing reasons rather than just based on quality. That’s not to say the movie isn’t good. But there aren’t a lot of animated movies release every year, so sometimes the field of nominees is less solid than you’d expect.
Ralph Breaks the Internet (In theaters now)
Likely nomination: Best Animated Feature
Again, people like this movie but don’t love it. Can’t be all killer, no filler when your choices are limited. Disney tends to get in anyway.
Shoplifters (In limited theaters now)
Likely nomination: Best Foreign-Language Film
Two of the best movies of the last ten years, Still Walking and After the Storm, were directed by Shoplifters director Hirokazu Kore-ada. I haven’t seen this Japanese submission yet, but critics are calling it his best yet.
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (In theaters now)
Likely nomination: Best Animated Feature
This would be my pick for Best Aniamted movie of the year over Incredibles 2. It’s got a shot.
Three Identical Strangers (Available to rent or buy)
Likely nomination: Best Documentary
Documentary filmmaking has hit something of a renaissance. Unlike the Animated Feature category, this one has been crowded of late. Ten years ago, a movie like this one, about triplets separated under fascinating circumstances, could win. Now, it’ll have to be content just to be nominated.
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (Available to rent or buy)
Likely nomination: Best Documentary
It probably won’t win, but everyone I know who’s seen this paean to the one-of-a-kind Mr. Rogers loves it unequivocally.
Ready Player One (Streaming on HBO)
Likely nomination: Best Visual Effects
Long shot: Best Sound Editing
Steven Spielberg has a habit of switching between “high-brow” and “low-brow” fare. One of those gets nominated for the big Oscars, the other settles for Visual Effects nominations.
Avengers: Infinity War (Streaming on Netflix)
Likely nomination: Best Visual Effects
There was a time when Marvel movies could only hope for Visual Effects nominations. This year should see the end of that, but not for Avengers: Infinity War.
Crazy Rich Asians (Available to rent or buy)
Long shots: Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Production Design
I’d be all for this movie getting more love from the Academy. Romantic comedies are an art form, as much as they’re dismissed, and Crazy Rich Asians is among the best of them. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely to get anything at all.
Widows (In limited theaters now)
Long shots: Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Film Editing
Had Widows received better marketing and made more at the box office, it would still be in the conversation. It’s certainly good enough to compete with any of the movies above it in these categories and would be a worthy Best Picture nominee.
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (In limited theaters now)
Long shots: Best Costume Design, Best Production Design
A disappointing movie will probably end up disappointed when nominations are announced. Enough of the competitors for the top awards will compete in the craft awards too that movies like Fantastic Beasts won’t be able to break through.
At Eternity’s Gate (In limited theaters now)
Long shot: Best Actor
Willem Dafoe reportedly gives a stellar performance as Vincent Van Gogh, but its profile isn’t high enough.
Hereditary (Available to rent or buy)
Long shot: Best Actress
The horror movie of the year really only had a shot with Toni Collette’s superb performance, but the field is too crowded.
The Death of Stalin (Streaming on Showtime)
Long shot: Best Adapted Screenplay
I’ve heard this comedy from Armando Ianucci, the creator of Veep, is hilarious, and he’s been nominated before for In the Loop. But most of the frontrunners for the top awards qualify for this category and will fill its ranks.
Destroyer (In theaters now)
Long shot: Best Actress
Nicole Kidman is an Academy favorite, but this indie thriller from Karyn Kusama hasn’t gotten nearly enough attention.
Leave No Trace (Available to rent or buy)
Long shot: Best Adapted Screenplay
There have been shouts of sexism over director Debra Granik’s (Winter’s Bone) exclusion from the conversation, but it may come down to not enough people seeing the movie.
Crime + Punishment (Streaming on Hulu)
Long shot: Best Documentary
This look at arrest quotas in the NYPD could still break through. The Documentary committee has been known to feature lesser-seen fare like this in the eventual nominees over more popular movies.
Early Man (Streaming on HBO)
Long shot: Best Animated Feature
Aardman has had Oscar success in the past with Wallace & Gromit and Shaun the Sheep, and Early Man could still get in based on that goodwill.
The Guilty (In limited theaters now)
Long shot: Best Foreign-Language Film
This Danish thriller is getting an American-made remake with Jake Gyllenhaal, which might be enough to draw attention to it, but probably won’t be.
Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Unavailable)
Long shot: Best Documentary
An acclaimed documentary about a black community in Alabama would be a welcome addition to the slate of nominees, and there’s still a shot for the Sundance standout with the unpredictable committee.
Never Look Away (Unavailable)
Long shot: Best Foreign-Language Film
German movie from the director of former winner The Lives of Others, Holocaust links in the story, distributed by Disney…any other year, this would be a lock by its measurables alone, but this is a crowded category.
Shirkers (Streaming on Netflix)
Long shot: Best Documentary
Again, the Documentary category can be a little unpredictable, but this Netflix original is probably out.
Smallfoot (Available to rent or buy)
Long shot: Best Animated Feature
This Warner Bros. release probably wasn’t quite popular enough to get enough attention from the category’s committee. Speaking of popularity, if you’re wondering why runaway hit The Grinch isn’t on this list, it’s because the committee didn’t include it on its shortlist. *shrug*
Tito and the Birds (Unavailable)
Long shot: Best Animated Feature
I know nothing about this movie, and I’m not convinced the Academy does either.
Ant-Man & the Wasp (Available to rent or buy)
Long shot: Best Visual Effects
It’s on the shortlist, but they’re going to go with the much higher profile and higher degree of difficulty Avengers: Infinity War. Also, someone needs to talk to Marvel Studios about how all their posters have the same design.
Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Streaming on Netflix)
Long shot: Best Song
The Coen brothers have had a lot of success with Oscar, but usually not with movies as quirky as this anthology Western. It’s only shot is “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” by folk artist Willie Watson and actor Tim Blake Nelson.
Border (Unavailable)
Long shot: Best Makeup and Hairstyling
This Swedish Cannes standout didn’t make the Foreign Language shortlist, probably because it’s absolutely batshit crazy, but it did make this one. It would be kind of awesome to see it compete against movies like Vice and Mary Queen of Scots.
Boy Erased (In limited theaters now)
Long shot: Best Song
Higher aspirations in the beginning for acting and screenplay nominations have given way to merely making the shortlist for Troye Sivan’s song with Jónsi, “Revelation.”
Colette (Available to rent or buy)
Long shot: Best Costume Design
Period pieces like this one with a high-profile star like Keira Knightley can at least count on consideration for these craft awards, but Colette has barely made a dent in the conversation.
Dumplin’ (Streaming on Netflix)
Long shot: Best Song
If it weren’t for its Dolly Parton song, “Girl in the Movies,” the Academy would have paid no attention to this down-home Netflix original.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout (Available to rent or buy)
Long shot: Best Sound Editing
Here’s your annual reminder that stunt people do not have a category at the Oscars, which makes no sense. A movie like Mission: Impossible – Fallout, which has a visceral nature to its action scenes that relies on stunt work and which is entirely different from the kinds of action you find in movies like Avengers and Ant-Man, deserves special recognition. As it is, maybe Mission: Impossible will sneak into the race with a sound award.
Solo: A Star Wars Story (Available to rent or buy)
Long shot: Best Visual Effects
I actually liked Solo, but not many people agreed with me, least of all critics. The Academy doesn’t seem to have put much stock into it either.
Stan and Ollie (In theaters now)
Long shot: Best Makeup and Hairstyling
I think John C. Reilly is one of the more underrated actors working today, so it would have been nice for him to get more attention for this biopic of the famous comedy duo. The movie didn’t get that attention, and it probably won’t make it into this category either, even if it was shortlisted.
Suspiria (Available to rent or buy)
Long shot: Best Makeup and Hairstyling
I’d very much like for Suspiria, a movie I haven’t seen but which looks like an absolutely crazy film, to be an Oscar nominee. Its only chance is here.
Welcome to Marwen (In theaters now)
Long shot: Best Visual Effects
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Coulda Been a Contender 
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