We have nominations! The day the Oscar nominations come out is always a relief, because now we can finally stop speculating about who will be nominated and talk about the movies themselves. Wait, what? We have to speculate about who’s going to win? Ugh. Anyway, here are a few storylines to watch for as Oscar season unfolds:
First of all, #OscarsSoWhite may not be a thing this year, given the inclusion of a number of movies focused on black characters, Spike Lee’s directing nomination (finally!), and the dominance of Roma. But #OscarsSoMale has been a storyline all winter, and it’s not going to go away.
No women directors were nominated for the 15th time this century. Of course, it’s not like any were expected to be. But even movies directed by women were largely shut out from the nomination pool. Of the 37 nominated movies (not counting short films), only five were at least co-directed by a woman: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, directed by Marielle Heller; RBG, co-directed by Julie Cohen and Betsy West; Foreign Language Film nominee Capernaum, directed by Nadine Labaki; Documentary nominee Free Solo, co-directed by Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi; and Mary Queen of Scots, directed by Josie Rourke. No Best Picture contenders among them. The only woman ever to win was Kathryn Bigelow (pictured below), and no woman was nominated following her win until Greta Gerwig last year.
It’s hard to fully blame the Academy for this. While there were worthy movies directed by women (Leave No Trace by Debra Granik, Private Life by Tamara Jenkins, etc.), they certainly didn’t have the campaigning machine behind them that the male-directed movies did. There’s a lot of blame to go around, but this will continue to be debated over the next month.
I’m hardly a Hollywood insider, but it seems to me this problem starts with the kinds of projects studios greenlight. Studios could easily make it a priority to have a quota of films directed by women that raises every few years; but studios aren’t concerned with diversity as a moral issue but as a financial issue. Think of how long it took Marvel to make Captain Marvel. The Academy has done well this year to make its most-nominated movies (Roma and The Favourite) ones that tell female-centered stories. I hope the studios notice.
Secondly, the controversies that plagued Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book for the last few months aren’t going anywhere. It’s possible that Green Book‘s troubles peaked and have done their damage. But Green Book certainly doesn’t seem like the frontrunner it may have before the nominations came out after it won the PGA award for Best Film. Five nominations doesn’t look that impressive, but a few well-timed wins in the remaining guilds (Writers, Directors) would seem to give it momentum. However, being nominated generally increases scrutiny; ergo, controversies rarely die down after nominations. If there’s anything else to dig up, someone will do so.
Bohemian Rhapsody has already seen an increase in scrutiny following a bombshell report released on Wednesday in The Atlantic about more sexual assault allegations against Rhapsody‘s credited director, Bryan Singer (pictured below). Rami Malek had to answer questions about the new allegations not long after the nominations were announced, and it was clear he’d rather be talking about the movie itself, rather than the director that was fired a few weeks before the end of production for not showing up to work. The problem is, Singer has had credible allegations against him for a long time, yet Rhapsody‘s studio, 20th Century Fox, saw fit to pay him millions of dollars to direct a movie anyway. The studio that currently employs him for the upcoming movie Red Sonja, Millennium, has acknowledged the report and stated that Singer remains attached to the movie, citing the historically high grosses of Rhapsody. Gross is an understatement in this case.
The scrutiny is only just now ratcheting up. There will be a lot of discussion about separating the art from the artist, and how much credit belongs with directors or writers anyway. We need to have these conversations, but they tend to get ugly and to distract from celebrating the qualities of the nominated movies. My advice: educate yourself on the controversies, but, please, read good stories on the quality in all the nominees as well.
Finally, we have a truly wide open race. As much as The Favourite and Roma appear to be the frontrunners with their high nomination totals, neither is a lock to win. Right now, Gold Derby unsurprisingly has Roma with the highest odds. Word was before the nominations that Roma was playing really well with voters. And that’s great! I love Roma, and it’s an achievement that feels both epic and personal at the same time, which is rare in movies, and something worth celebrating.
But I would have guessed that the movie next in line according to the odds was The Favourite, but it’s not – it’s BlacKkKlansman. And Spike is just behind Alfonso Cuarón in Directing. A few weeks back, I predicted that after the nominations came out, BlacKkKlansman would…well, let’s just quote what I said:
I have a sneaking suspicion that BlacKkKlansman, after getting nominated, is going to rise up this list. In a wide open year with a shaky frontrunner (A Star Is Born, for various reasons, seems likely to wear on voters rather than grow on them), BlacKkKlansman ticks a lot of boxes. For one thing, director Spike Lee has historically been snubbed by the Oscars. For another, BlacKkKlansman was a relatively big hit this summer as counterprogramming. Also, the fact that it was made by black people, stars black people, and is about issues important to black people will appeal to Academy voters who want to shed the #OscarsSoWhite label once and for all (even though this, like Moonlight‘s win, would ultimately only move the needle a tiny bit, but that’s a different blog post). I’m not saying it’s going to win, but the conversation will heat up after the nominations are announced.
I’m not saying I saw the future or anything, but…
Anyway, this is a real race, and it’s not just restricted to those two movies. I’m thinking Green Book will win at least one of the other guilds it’s nominated for (WGA or DGA) in a show of solidarity from that guild following the controversies Green Book has dealt with. When that happens, Green Book will vault to the front.
And don’t forget A Star Is Born. It was the original frontrunner all the way back in October up until recently. Original frontrunners have a habit of rising back to the top for some reason or another; in this case, A Star Is Born hasn’t actually won anything yet and Cooper was snubbed by the Directors branch, reminding many of when Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for Argo, whose eventual win was seen as a response to that snub.
This race is wide open with a bunch of popular movies in contention. This may be the most exciting Oscar race in some time, probably since 2012, when Argo won.
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So you can plan your viewing over the next month well, I’ve ranked the contenders in order of decreasing relevance to the race based on the number and types of categories they’re nominated in, split into alphabetically-ordered tiers. You’ll find a key explaining the three different terms I used for the awards categories. After that, there’s a list of the nominations in full.
Contenders
The Favourite (4 Big Five, 3 Secondary Six, 3 craft)
Roma (4 Big Five, 3 Secondary Six, 3 craft)
A Star Is Born (4 Big Five, 2 Secondary Six, 2 craft)
Vice (4 Big Five, 2 Secondary Six, 2 craft)
BlacKkKlansman (3 Big Five, 1 Secondary Six, 2 craft)
Green Book (3 Big Five, 1 Secondary Six, 1 craft)
Black Panther (1 Big Five, 6 craft)
Bohemian Rhapsody (2 Big Five, 3 craft)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2 Big Five, 1 Secondary Six)
Cold War (1 Big Five, 2 Secondary Six)
If Beale Street Could Talk (1 Big Five, 1 Secondary Six, 1 craft)
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (1 Big Five, 2 craft)
First Man (4 craft)
Mary Poppins Returns (4 craft)
Never Look Away (2 Secondary Six)
At Eternity’s Gate (1 Big Five)
First Reformed (1 Big Five)
Isle of Dogs (1 Secondary Six, 1 craft)
RBG (1 Secondary Six, 1 craft)
The Wife (1 Big Five)
Capernaum (1 Secondary Six)
Free Solo (1 Secondary Six)
Hale County This Morning, This Evening (1 Secondary Six)
Incredibles 2 (1 Secondary Six)
Mary Queen of Scots (2 craft)
Minding the Gap (1 Secondary Six)
Mirai (1 Secondary Six)
Of Fathers and Sons (1 Secondary Six)
Ralph Breaks the Internet (1 Secondary Six)
Shoplifters (1 Secondary Six)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (1 Secondary Six)
Avengers: Infinity War (1 craft)
Border (1 craft)
Christopher Robin (1 craft)
A Quiet Place (1 craft)
Ready Player One (1 craft)
Solo: A Star Wars Story (1 craft)
Key (in order of increasing relevance):
Craft nominations: Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Music (Original Score), Music (Original Song), Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects
These aren’t lesser awards, per say, but they have less prominence to both the average viewer and the Oscar die-hard.
Secondary Six nominations: Animated Feature, Documentary (Feature), Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Actor in a Supporting Role, Actress in a Supporting Role
These are just behind the Big Five in terms of prominence. If you’re looking for the movies the Academy considers the best, look to the Big Five. But the Secondary Six awards get plenty of press attention too, with the possible exception of Cinematography, which gets its legitimacy from critics’ attention.
Big Five nominations: Writing (Adapted Screenplay), Writing (Original Screenplay), Actor in a Leading Role, Actress in a Leading Role, Directing, Best Picture
I know there are more than five awards in this category, but you’ll often hear Oscar historians talk about movies that could win or have won the Big Five (only It Happened One Night (1934), One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975), and The Silence of the Lambs (1991) have done it). A movie can only be nominated in one of the two writing categories; hence, Big Five. Incidentally, no one can do it this year. A Star Is Born would have had the best chance by virtue of having two lead performances contending, but Cooper missed out on the Directing nomination.
Costume Design
Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Film Editing
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
Music (Original Score)
Nominees: Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Music (Original Song)
Nominees: “All the Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Return
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Production Design
Nominees: Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Sound Editing
Nominees: Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
Sound Mixing
Nominees: Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Visual Effects
Nominees: Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Animated Feature Film
Nominees: Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary (Feature)
Nominees: Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Cinematography
Nominees: Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Amy Adams, Vice
Marina De Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees: The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Directing
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee
Cold War, Pawel Pawlikowski
The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay
Best Picture
Nominees: Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Coulda Been a Contender 